This Just In: Bloomberg Can Win

It is so disappointing (but amusing, in a way) to see the mainstream press botch yet another big story by simply not crunching the numbers. You all read the headlines and quotes in NYT, NYP, LAT, and on and on, that claim that New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg has virtually no shot of winning an independent campaign for president. There were the requisite rants and raves about how no independent had ever won, how the party machines are invaluable, how he would hurt the Democrats, how he would hurt the Republicans, how pissed Rudy and Hillary are, how no NY mayor would ever win over the heartland, blah, blah, blah. The Post went so far as to run a story about how he is too short to win. And even Bloomberg himself has talked about how the country isn't quite ready for a short, Jewish, divorced, unmarried, rich white guy to take over the White House.

Well, I've got news for you. The experts are just filling the airwaves, newsprint and DSL lines with a bunch of noise. Hell, I could throw out my own version of BS off-the-cuff journalism that should be equally compelling: 1) Bloomberg has a shitload of money; 2) Bloomberg is one of the two best mayors in the history of New York; 3) America is ready for a moderate; and 4) did I mention that obscene pile of make-my-hedge-fund-manager-drool-like-a-bulldog moolah?

But of course I wouldn't do that. I will instead refer to the only thing that matters in this debate, which is the Electoral College. And when you look at the cold, hard numbers, you realize that lo and behold...um, it's going to pretty friggin' hard. But "pretty friggin' hard" is a whole lot better than "impossible," "Don Quixote, "egomaniacal folly," or any of the other easy analysis I've heard from pundits, politicians and friends alike.

Here's what needs to happen:

- First off, just write off the entire South (except Florida), Southwest and most of the Midwest.
- Then, make sure you put California, Florida and New York in the win column for Mayor Mike. Any of those goes the other way, and he's through.
- Now it gets even harder. Throw in the entire Northeast. Not a gimme in several states that are virtual certainties for the Dems.
- Yeah, and Mid-Atlantic? We need your support as well. All the way down to DC (Virginia can keep their guns and Republicans).
- And the ultimate challenge: give Mr. Bloomberg the Rust Belt. Yes, Michigan, Ohio, maybe Indiana. Illinois becomes a must. And Wisconsin and Minnesota, with their independent streaks, would be enormously helpful.

Voila, that coalition leaves Mike with 288 Electoral College votes, a comfy 18 more than he needs to fly his G4 to Reagan National. In other words, he has room to lose a couple of the states I mentioned here and there, but that's it. Because he has virtually no chance in any of the other states.

So, why am I so optimistic? (Kind of obvious I want this to happen, isn't it?) Well, most of the states that I mentioned contain big cities, and I think big cities are going to be key because of his record in NY. Secondly, Bloomberg's cash-eesh will be an enormous benefit in the huge (read: expensive TV ads) states like California, New York, Florida and Illinois. In fact, California and New York have barely even been a factor since Reagan...they are so reliably Democratic that they aren't contested. Do you think the leading Democrats and Republicans are psyched about potentially having to dump $50-100M of their hard-earned campaign contributions into those two states that they thought would cost them nothing? Their total budgets figure to be around $300M and that assumes each candidate spends half or more of his/her precious time raising those funds (all major candidates have foregone campaign matching funds). Bloomberg has his hoard sitting in the bank (of course, he does still have to spend time running the largest city in the country, but that's what deputy mayors are for). Mike could easily spend $500M and has spoken privately with advisors about that very number. More importantly, how fun would it be to watch Rudy, Hillary and Mike battle for the hearts and votes of New Yorkers? Do you think the Arnie & Mike show would play in Cali? How about a crazy three-way brawl for every last chad in Florida?

Of course, the bad news is that even if everything breaks Bloomberg's way in the blue coastal states, he will still have to make inroads in the middle of the country and that is clearly not his strength. Moreover, those areas are fortresses of votes for his presumptive competitors. Both Clinton and Obama have Illinois roots. And we saw what the Republicans were able to accomplish in 2004 in those exurbs in Ohio.

But I'm not here to talk about bad news. I'm here to talk numbers and the numbers tell me he has a shot. Heck, even Ross Perot pulled 20% of the vote and he was half-loony. All you need in a three-way race is 33%. Is that such a stretch for a person with infinitely better political experience? The numbers also tell me that this could be the most exciting presidential race in a generation. It might even produce a decent president. Half of this country doesn't even vote and many of them are moderates who feel disenfranchised by both parties. If they get off the couch to vote for a dynamic independent, it could make a big difference.

Of course, none of this matters if he doesn't run. He says he won't run. And the pundits predict he will come to his senses eventually and realize it is an impossible dream. But, again, when I hear these things, I somehow come to the opposite conclusion. Listen to the former Bloomberg LP CEO's response back in 2001 when the New York Times asked him why he would want to run for mayor:

"Because everybody tells me that you can't do it."