The McCain Surge

What is up with Obama's diminishing lead in nationwide polls? The "McCain surge" has taken him from eight points down to three in the last two weeks. I'm inclined not to take summer polls too seriously since nobody but we geeks are really paying attention at this point, but it is still interesting. My hypothesis is that Obama is getting a whiplash reaction from the netroots and left wingers who are disappointed with some of his recent moves to the center. They are probably telling pollsters that they are so disappointed that they are going to vote for the "maverick" and "straight talker" McCain. And Obama has yet to see any benefits from the independents, who are probably less maniacal about following summer politics. On the other hand, Obama is still solid where it counts...Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Colorado and more.

My other theory is that the McCain campaign has adopted a new strategy for their candidate. The McCain surge has happened without the benefit of him doing anything noteworthy whatsoever. He even spent two days in Colombia, of all places. His events are usually kept to <100 people and TV coverage is kept to a minimum. And he is down to only three campaign days/week, according to some reports. I think the McCain campaign has decided that their candidate is so weak that their best hope is to hide him.