We may stop making cars in this country. Look at these numbers: GM has negative equity of $41B and lost $39B last year. The only reason the company isn't bankrupt is because the markets are trading on the assumption that GM's future cash flows will wipe out that $41B in a reasonable period of time. I'm not so sure. The stock is down 50% in the last two months, which would seem to indicate a dramatic loss in market confidence. Ford isn't much better. It is approaching penny stock territory at $4.95 and is off 40% in the same period.
GM is teetering, folks. What will happen if those 266,000 jobs go away? You think the good people of Michigan will vote Republican? Maybe, maybe not. You can be damn sure the Bush braintrust (and the wimpy Democratic Congress) will pump yet another $100B of our hard-earned tax dollars to prop up another failed business. And we'll be drilling for oil in the Rose Garden.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
A Close Race?
There's been a lot of talk recently about how close of a race the US general election is between Barack Obama and John McCain. It isn't. In fact, a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that revealed a 6-point lead for Obama was characterized as revealing a number of weaknesses for Obama that he would need to overcome to win in November. Buried later on in the WSJ article was the point that Obama has actually doubled his overall lead since the last poll and is walloping McCain among most key demographics. In any case, the popular vote is more or less meaningless, so it is more important to focus on the states. And what do the latest polls there say? Here is the latest swing state polling for the general election (recent poll averages from RCP):
A lot can change from now until Election Day, as the old cliche goes, but if you are in the Obama camp, you have to pretty darn happy with these numbers. At this early stage of the race, McCain is way, way behind.
- Ohio: Obama +4
- Pennsylvania: Obama +6
- Wisconsin: Obama +7
- Colorado: Obama +5
- Iowa: Obama +8
- Minnesota: Obama +9
- Oregon: Obama +9
- Washington: Obama +13
- Virginia: tie
- North Carolina: McCain +4
- Indiana: McCain +2
- Michigan: McCain +2
- New Hampshire: McCain +1
- Florida: McCain +8
- Missouri: McCain +6
- New Mexico: McCain +1
- Nevada: McCain +1
A lot can change from now until Election Day, as the old cliche goes, but if you are in the Obama camp, you have to pretty darn happy with these numbers. At this early stage of the race, McCain is way, way behind.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
It Depends On What Your Definition Of The Word "Endorse" Is
I don't think any of us can begin to comprehend how disappointed Clinton must feel right now, as someone who was so far and away the favorite for her party's nomination only four months ago in a year when the Democrats are virtually assured the presidency. And to come so close, it must be devastating. Perhaps she ought give Al Gore a call.
But her burn-the-house-down tactics throughout the campaign have been infuriating. And now there are reports that we are about to be subjected to the ol' Clinton semantic jujitsu once again. She is going to "suspend" her campaign, not "end" it. She is going to leave her name on the convention nomination list, just in case. Her email last night to reporters announced that she would congratulate and "support" Obama, not endorse him. She is not going to leverage Obama into offering her the VP position, but she is going to make sure that her 18M voters are "heard". An hour ago, the New York congressional delegation called a press conference to announce a group endorsement, but not of Obama. They announced that they are endorsing Clinton's decision to suspend her campaign.
It is enough to pull your hair out. What is happening here is plainly obvious: all of this legalistic wordsmithing and behind-the-scenes maneuvering is not an accident. She is keeping her options open. She still plans on winning this thing.
But her burn-the-house-down tactics throughout the campaign have been infuriating. And now there are reports that we are about to be subjected to the ol' Clinton semantic jujitsu once again. She is going to "suspend" her campaign, not "end" it. She is going to leave her name on the convention nomination list, just in case. Her email last night to reporters announced that she would congratulate and "support" Obama, not endorse him. She is not going to leverage Obama into offering her the VP position, but she is going to make sure that her 18M voters are "heard". An hour ago, the New York congressional delegation called a press conference to announce a group endorsement, but not of Obama. They announced that they are endorsing Clinton's decision to suspend her campaign.
It is enough to pull your hair out. What is happening here is plainly obvious: all of this legalistic wordsmithing and behind-the-scenes maneuvering is not an accident. She is keeping her options open. She still plans on winning this thing.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Speeches
Hillary Clinton said many months ago that speeches don't matter. "Just words," I think was the way she put it, in condemning Obama. Last night proved her wrong. Last night, three speeches were emblematic of the entire campaign:
For anyone that hasn't seen McCain's speech, I highly encourage a visit to YouTube. It was sad. This was McCain's last big moment before the Republican convention to counter the Democratic arguments against him. With no more than 200 attendees, the room took on the appearance of an Elks Club meeting at the Highway 40 Holiday Inn. Then words came out of McCain's mouth and it went downhill from there. To say the audience reaction was tepid is an understatement. He kept making arguments against Obama and then repeating the applause line, "That's not change we can believe in!" This line was accompanied by a giant grin (boy, are his teeth yellow...somebody get a dentist on the Straight Talk Express). At first, a few people took the cue and applauded, but after a while, they gave up. At one point, he unleashed this line to deafening silence, leaving him to stand there with a big expectant grin, like an old Catskills comedian, as crickets chirped outside. There is no other word to describe it...it was really, really sad. After the speech, the CNN crew was incredulous, with Jeffrey Toobin calling it "the worst speech I've heard in years." Anderson Cooper asked the panel if McCain "needed help." The entire studio was falling over themselves laughing and making fun of the senator. I'm not making this up.
Then it was Hillary's turn. Obama had just clinched the nomination, as was expected all day. She turned in one or two perfunctory lines about Mr. Obama and what a good campaign he has run, but made no mention of his historic victory. She then proceeded to unleash on him, sticking to her claim that she is best positioned to win the White House, that she won all the swing states, that she alone has the experience necessary to turn this country around, that she alone speaks for all the women in the country who never thought they'd see this day. Me, me, me. She then announced that she would not be making any decisions tonight, to a roar of approval from the crowd at Baruch College in Manhattan. She smiled broadly as the crowd cheered, "Denver, Denver, Denver!" She complained about Obama supporters that tried to push her out of the race. "Every vote counts!" she announced heroically. She then said her next step was going to be to listen to her 18M supporters. She asked them to write to her on her website and tell her what they think she should do. (What do you think they'll say?) She also told them that any "help" they could provide would be appreciated. It was a spectacular performance of complete narcissistic glee. Evita Peron couldn't hold a candle to her. After the speech, the CNN panel was nearly as amazed as they were after the McCain speech, but for obviously different reasons. They marveled at her complete lack of grace and her refusal to even throw Obama a single bone of congratulations. The Republican consultant on the panel had the line of the night: "About the only thing she forgot to do was to offer Obama the VP slot."
The panel uniformly agreed that she was going to continue the fight, probably at the behest of all those supporters who are sure to write in and ask her to keep up the good fight. The only dissenters on the panel were Carl Bernstein and James Carville, who both hinted that they had inside knowledge of the Clinton strategy. Apparently the Clinton camp believes that they should not give up any leverage until Obama accedes to their demands, whatever they may be. There are some reports that it is about the vice presidency. Others claim that campaign debts are far higher than have been previously revealed and may need to be paid off from Obama's coffers. Who knows, but I'll say one thing: I'd be surprised if Obama is going to allow Clinton to "leverage" him into offering much. What kind of a presidential nominee is going to offer someone a spot on the ticket with a gun to their head? She had a chance to recognize this historic moment in American history and instead crapped on it. Those are chips she can't play again. A Clinton supporter wrote into the show saying that Clinton will do the right thing in due course, but tonight is "her night." Really?
Finally, Obama spoke in front of 18,000 supporters in St. Paul and absolutely killed it. He went above and beyond in recognizing Clinton's achievements, her service to the country, and her inspiration to women. He praised McCain and then made his points against him. And he called on Americans to come together and lead again. The one thing he didn't do: he didn't make a single reference to the historic nature of his victory. In his view, this election should not be about race, although it is an obvious factor. But at least in his rhetoric, he is appealing to our better nature. The CNN peanut gallery lauded his performance. David Gergen said some great things about growing up in North Carolina and not really believing that this event had occurred in American history in his lifetime. He said, "America has come a long way and Obama hastened the moment." He then lamented that a wonderful, historic night in our nation's history had a wet towel thrown on it by an obviously bitter Hillary. He and others speculated that the Democratic establishment (as well as the Obama campaign) must be furious and a mass of her superdelegate support will melt away tomorrow. We'll see...I sure hope so.
So, there you have it: the Republican candidate, appearing like he is washed up before the battle is even joined, the Democratic runner-up, still plotting and scheming her way to more power and money, and the Democratic nominee, looking ahead to brighter days. The choice this November seems fairly obvious, and I believe more and more Americans will come to the same conclusion in the months ahead.
For anyone that hasn't seen McCain's speech, I highly encourage a visit to YouTube. It was sad. This was McCain's last big moment before the Republican convention to counter the Democratic arguments against him. With no more than 200 attendees, the room took on the appearance of an Elks Club meeting at the Highway 40 Holiday Inn. Then words came out of McCain's mouth and it went downhill from there. To say the audience reaction was tepid is an understatement. He kept making arguments against Obama and then repeating the applause line, "That's not change we can believe in!" This line was accompanied by a giant grin (boy, are his teeth yellow...somebody get a dentist on the Straight Talk Express). At first, a few people took the cue and applauded, but after a while, they gave up. At one point, he unleashed this line to deafening silence, leaving him to stand there with a big expectant grin, like an old Catskills comedian, as crickets chirped outside. There is no other word to describe it...it was really, really sad. After the speech, the CNN crew was incredulous, with Jeffrey Toobin calling it "the worst speech I've heard in years." Anderson Cooper asked the panel if McCain "needed help." The entire studio was falling over themselves laughing and making fun of the senator. I'm not making this up.
Then it was Hillary's turn. Obama had just clinched the nomination, as was expected all day. She turned in one or two perfunctory lines about Mr. Obama and what a good campaign he has run, but made no mention of his historic victory. She then proceeded to unleash on him, sticking to her claim that she is best positioned to win the White House, that she won all the swing states, that she alone has the experience necessary to turn this country around, that she alone speaks for all the women in the country who never thought they'd see this day. Me, me, me. She then announced that she would not be making any decisions tonight, to a roar of approval from the crowd at Baruch College in Manhattan. She smiled broadly as the crowd cheered, "Denver, Denver, Denver!" She complained about Obama supporters that tried to push her out of the race. "Every vote counts!" she announced heroically. She then said her next step was going to be to listen to her 18M supporters. She asked them to write to her on her website and tell her what they think she should do. (What do you think they'll say?) She also told them that any "help" they could provide would be appreciated. It was a spectacular performance of complete narcissistic glee. Evita Peron couldn't hold a candle to her. After the speech, the CNN panel was nearly as amazed as they were after the McCain speech, but for obviously different reasons. They marveled at her complete lack of grace and her refusal to even throw Obama a single bone of congratulations. The Republican consultant on the panel had the line of the night: "About the only thing she forgot to do was to offer Obama the VP slot."
The panel uniformly agreed that she was going to continue the fight, probably at the behest of all those supporters who are sure to write in and ask her to keep up the good fight. The only dissenters on the panel were Carl Bernstein and James Carville, who both hinted that they had inside knowledge of the Clinton strategy. Apparently the Clinton camp believes that they should not give up any leverage until Obama accedes to their demands, whatever they may be. There are some reports that it is about the vice presidency. Others claim that campaign debts are far higher than have been previously revealed and may need to be paid off from Obama's coffers. Who knows, but I'll say one thing: I'd be surprised if Obama is going to allow Clinton to "leverage" him into offering much. What kind of a presidential nominee is going to offer someone a spot on the ticket with a gun to their head? She had a chance to recognize this historic moment in American history and instead crapped on it. Those are chips she can't play again. A Clinton supporter wrote into the show saying that Clinton will do the right thing in due course, but tonight is "her night." Really?
Finally, Obama spoke in front of 18,000 supporters in St. Paul and absolutely killed it. He went above and beyond in recognizing Clinton's achievements, her service to the country, and her inspiration to women. He praised McCain and then made his points against him. And he called on Americans to come together and lead again. The one thing he didn't do: he didn't make a single reference to the historic nature of his victory. In his view, this election should not be about race, although it is an obvious factor. But at least in his rhetoric, he is appealing to our better nature. The CNN peanut gallery lauded his performance. David Gergen said some great things about growing up in North Carolina and not really believing that this event had occurred in American history in his lifetime. He said, "America has come a long way and Obama hastened the moment." He then lamented that a wonderful, historic night in our nation's history had a wet towel thrown on it by an obviously bitter Hillary. He and others speculated that the Democratic establishment (as well as the Obama campaign) must be furious and a mass of her superdelegate support will melt away tomorrow. We'll see...I sure hope so.
So, there you have it: the Republican candidate, appearing like he is washed up before the battle is even joined, the Democratic runner-up, still plotting and scheming her way to more power and money, and the Democratic nominee, looking ahead to brighter days. The choice this November seems fairly obvious, and I believe more and more Americans will come to the same conclusion in the months ahead.
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