The Knives Are Out

Politico is reporting that the infighting over Palin has begun.  The story was clearly placed by Palin's camp, but incredibly, still manages to make her look disloyal and vapid.  McCain insiders are particularly incensed that she goes off and makes her own policy declarations without clearing them with the boss.  This bit of inscrutable nonsense was from a radio interview with Glenn Beck this week:

"I say, you know, when is enough enough of taxpayer dollars being thrown into this bill out there?" she asked. "This next one of the Democrats being proposed should be very, very concerning to all Americans because to me it sends a message that $700 billion bailout, maybe that was just the tip of the iceberg. No, you know, we were told when we've got to be believing if we have enough elected officials who are going to be standing strong on fiscal conservative principles and free enterprise and we have to believe that there are enough of those elected officials to say, no, okay, that's enough." 

A McCain insider called this little ditty "a nice sentiment."

I know that Obama gets criticized for having a smooth tongue, but honestly, would America really prefer the opposite?  Sarah Palin makes W sound like Lincoln.  If she truly is the future of the Republican party as so many claim, then the Republicans are in even more trouble than I thought.

Meanwhile, McCain was in Colorado yesterday talking about how small businesses need "less government regulation."  Again, perhaps "a nice sentiment," but really, Senator, this is probably not the best time.

North Carolina Early Voting

There is some interesting data coming back from North Carolina regarding early voting and absentee ballots. I'll spare you the math: 9% of registered voters have already voted and these are comprised of 56% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 17% other (the polls have been open since October 13). This implies a 29% edge for Obama among 9% of all registered voters and a greater percentage of likely voters, if we assume that party members vote for their candidate and the others split their votes down the middle. There is still a week of early voting remaining, which means we can expect something like 20% of NC to vote early when all is said and done. This means that by the time the polls open on November 4, McCain will have to beat Obama by 7-8 points among election day voters just to tie Obama. That is quite a hole to dig out of.

Powell Endorses Obama

I just watched Gen. Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama on Meet the Press. All I can say is, wow. Without reading from notes or a prompter, he delivered a pitch-perfect, even-handed but full-throated, emotionally moving seven-minute soliloquy about he supports Barack Obama to be the next president of the United States. He even deals with the Muslim Arab-bashing issue head-on in such a powerful way, I don't know how someone could watch this and not be simultaneously ashamed of some of the recent rhetoric and incredibly proud of this great nation. The fact that he is the first major public figure to do so publicly is hugely important, and will be the subject of many news stories over the next few days. Our country will be better off for it.

McCain Finally Has a Message! (and Momentum)

I take great pride in the fact that yesterday Nate Silver came to the same conclusion about last week's debate that I did two days ago. The results are in and McCain won the last debate decisively among conservatives. He has now closed the gap from 7.1% last Wednesday to 5% today. There is no other way to explain such a sudden shift in momentum toward McCain, as there was no other significant news. All four insta-polls went heavily to Obama, but those polls are either slanted toward Democrats (because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans) or focused on independent and undecided voters, who clearly preferred Obama's performance to McCain's. But it is the social and fiscal conservatives that are fired up now. Red state America loves Joe the Plumber, despite his failure to pay taxes, the fact that he's not a plumber, and his tax advantage under the Obama plan. The McCain campaign is now accusing Obama of unfairly "attacking" Joe the Plumber, even though he's done no such thing, and the conservatives are rallying to his cause. In fact, "share the wealth" is becoming this cycle's "cling to guns and religion"; Obama-as-socialist is scoring points for McCain. The "What's the Matter with Kansas" principle may still apply: even people of modest means abhor the idea of rich people sharing the wealth, and will enthusiastically vote for the guy who promises to cut taxes for the most fortunate 1%. Why? Because they want to be rich too someday, and believe they will be, and think it is fair for people that strike the jackpot to keep their winnings.

The second piece of red meat McCain threw out during the debate was a full-throated pro-life message. He even said that he thought a Supreme Court justice candidate that supported Roe v Wade probably wasn't qualified for the job. Again, the social conservatives love this kind of "straight talk" and I think they are throwing their weight more enthusiastically toward McCain. I was surprised to see in the NYT this morning that only 54% of American women are pro-choice, according to an August Pew Research Center poll. I always thought that number was significantly higher. 42% of women are pro-life and 16% say it should be banned "in all cases." (even a point higher than men!). This is clearly a winning issue for McCain among his base.

I disagree with Silver about one key point, however. I think McCain can win the election with a full-bore conservative base campaign. I don't think he will, but he can. What we are seeing now is similar to what we saw when Palin was nominated. Let's not forget that McCain was up by as many as 3-4 points after her nomination and the convention. I don't think this election will go that far in the other direction because of the economy and a generally higher comfort level with Obama than the country had previously, but it is certainly conceivable to see this falling into a popular vote dead heat.

McCain has a concrete, two-pronged message now with Joe the Plumber/wealth redistribution and abortion. This message offers the added advantage of synching better with his running mate than his prior messages have. I think we'll stop seeing the Bill Ayers/Rezko crap, as even the McCain campaign recognizes that America wants to know why McCain is running for president. Now we know: he wants to lower taxes for the wealthy and make sure Roe v Wade is overturned. We blue state "elites" may think this is a nutty platform to run on, but at least he stands for something now, which he didn't before. And it is clearly working.

The question is, how much? Interestingly, the state polls are still squarely in Obama's column and haven't moved much. And Powell's endorsement today may help a little. The independents and undecideds, which make up about 9% of the electorate, are still breaking pretty strongly to Obama and a good third of them probably won't even vote. But most experts think this will shift toward McCain as election days nears, with maybe 4-5% going to him, 1-2% going to Obama, and 2-3% not voting. That means McCain would gain about 3 points net. He probably still has a couple more points coming to him from the conservatives, which would get us basically to a dead heat.

But the states are what count, obviously. From where we stand today, I would guess that McCain closes the gap and takes Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. He has to; if he loses any one of those three, he will lose the election. But even if Obama gets swept in those three states, he will still likely hold onto Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota and New Mexico. And that puts him in great position. Obama already has 249 out of the 270 electors he needs locked up in solid blue states. So he only needs 21 more. Any of the following combos of Obama-leaning states would put him over the top:

• Colorado + Virginia
• Minnesota + Virginia
• Minnesota + Colorado + New Mexico

This is an incredibly strong position for Obama. He could lose all eight of the toss-up states and still win the election by winning just two of the four states that are leaning toward him. Add to this the clear advantage Obama has in his GOTV efforts, and we are looking at a very likely Obama victory, despite McCain's recent success. But it will probably not be the walk in the park some were hoping for and expecting. Election Day is going to be more fun than the Final Four and World Cup combined (and only slightly less important).