- Men thought McCain won, 48-45%, I believe. That is a terrible score for McCain. Men typically vote Republican by large margins.
- Women had Obama winning 59-38%, or something near that. A 20+% margin. Women are 1) more likely to vote, 2) decide late, and 3) are a majority of the self-described Independents. That is a good group to have in your corner, especially when you are ahead in the polls by 3-5% and only about 10% of the country hasn't made up their mind yet.
- Most surprisingly, people 50 years old and above went for Obama 48-40% (I think...my memory sucks). They vote in huge numbers and have traditionally been a strength for McCain.
So, why, when most of us thought the debate was pretty even or maybe a slight edge to Obama, does the American public seem to so decisively believe it was Obama that won? I think it is because for a large number of those polled, this was the first time they've really seen McCain up close since 2000. And he doesn't look or sound as impressive as he once did. On the other hand, Obama, who a number of these people have also not seen a lot of (despite what we may think about him being overexposed, many people haven't paid attention until now) looked and sounded confident and presidential. I bet many people figured he was just a callow, inexperienced young guy. This debate may have changed some minds.
As usual, it is less about what they say and more about how they say it. The meta-message I took away was McCain = angry, old man with solid foreign policy experience ("He doesn't get it. He doesn't get it."). Obama = reasonable, smart, respectful young man ("John is right..."), with not a lot of experience, but who certainly did his homework. He shows poise beyond his years. A tiny detail from the end of the debate that I thought was telling: when the two candidates shook hands, Obama looked McCain directly in the eye and said, "Good job, John." McCain mumbled something inaudible and looked away without making any eye contact at all.
